June Update 2009
June 29th, 2009To our friends and clients -
· We again show our age. David Carradine’s recent untimely death made us flash back to the early 70’s Kung Fu series. Here is some useless trivia for you…According to Bruce Lee’s wife, Linda Lee, the concept of the Kung Fu series was conceived by Bruce, and met with the producers for countless hours to shape the show. But the producers did not offer the role to Bruce Lee since they did not feel that the American audience (at that time) would accept a Chinese actor as a lead, therefore looked for a Caucasian actor to fill the role.
· Soak the rich: Maryland’s rate increase on filers who make more than a $1,000,000 - decreased the number of filers by 33% - and resulted in $100mm less than expected - no doubt some were victims of the recession - but many simply moved. As Margaret Thatcher said, “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.”
· A local Austin, Texas lot developer passed along the following regarding local RE prices, currently Austin has an 18-20 month supply of Lot inventory assuming the current depressed 6500 unit per year sales number. Right now there are ZERO new subdivisions going up and the National Homebuilders will not even return phone calls. His prediction: with inventory low, nobody having the “balls” to start new subdivisions combined with the fact that land prices have not come down and job growth in Austin is good - new home starts will be back to the 12000 level in 18 months or so and new home prices will increase significantly as lot prices skyrocket.
· Twitter as of April: 32 million users, 45 employees, no real revenue or real plan for revenue, financed by $55 million in equity and expected to sell for no less than $1 Billion - simply amazing times we live in.
· Rule of Law for Lenders: Chrysler’s bankruptcy and President Obama have now shown the lending community that we may or may not be secured - and while it may have saved some jobs the Unionized workers that help elect him, what about all those jobs that will be lost because we have now trampled on the sanctity of contracts? We thought the Supreme Court was going to mess up this blurb by hearing the case, we were unfortunately wrong.
· In a world of texting, twitter and e-mail, hand written letters are about to become extinct. Do you want to make an impression or standout to your next client? Send a hand written “THANK YOU”. You might be surprised.
· Anyone interested in moving to Detroit? We read that in the city of Detroit, the median sales price of a home in May was $50,000, down 44.3% from May 2008.
· Are you obsessed with your financials? If not…you should be! We see too many businesses that put this aspect of their business on the back burner or worse, delegate it to someone without a vested interest. It only becomes a priority when something goes wrong. A good goal: have all your financials done by the 10th of each month.
· Tidbits:
- Less than 10% of initial funding for most start-ups comes from venture capital, angel investors and friends.
- 23% of small firms plan to spend more on employee development in 2009.
- 26% plans to increase their internet marketing budgets.
- If a small business survives the first year: it will have a 15% growth in employment each year.
· In June, we were in Argentina, a lovely country for sure with plentiful resources, what always stands out to us whenever we are lucky enough to get to travel outside of the US, is the tremendous amount of entrepreneurial opportunity we have in this country. The system of government we have is not perfect but go look around; this is still the greatest place on earth to create wealth. Our country tries real hard to do the right thing. We were also in Arkansas and Montana, other beautiful foreign countries.
· Positive Signs of Recovery:
- Continuing claims for unemployment has now started to fall. It was the first time that continuing claims have fallen since Jan 3. The four week moving average for initial claims also continues to fall further clarifying the lagging peak.
- The Philly Fed Survey improved to negative 2.2 from negative 22.6 last month. Economists expected a reading of negative 17. Among the sub-indexes manufacturing shipments actually turned positive for the first time since May of last year. More good news is found in the 6-month outlook where the general business conditions index rose more than 10 points. Respondents also pointed to employment continuing to picking up six months down the road.
- The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators (LEI) rose 1.2% in May adding to the 1.1% gain in April. Further the index has risen 1.2 percent ( a 2.4 percent annual rate) between November 2008 and May 2009. That represents the first time the index has increased over a six-month period since July 2007.
· In speaking to our clients and getting a bead on where they are headed, we see mostly stabilization and cautious optimism, our volume of purchased invoices increased by 25% from April to May and while we booked a couple of nice new deals, we saw most of that increase from our existing client base. 99% of our clients are Texas based.
· We were sad to hear of the news of the death of Farrah - last month we got plenty of responses to our question and congrats to Paul Gautier of Riverstone Wealth Management - he answered our question in 8 minutes and we mailed him the poster - for those who care the answer to that question was- SEX.
· Great quote from the late Ed McMahon talking about the Johnny Carson show: “There is no planning. On the night it is really great, it’s euphoria and if it is not so great there is always tomorrow night.” Sounds like a good business philosophy…there is always tomorrow.
All our best -
Cole Harmonson | 512-528-1494 | cole@farwestcap.com
Don Stricklin | 512-525-1490 | don@farwestcap.com





