Texas Business Compared to the Nation - History and Prognosis
June 5th, 2008Article Summary: There is plenty of negative business news in the papers and on TV lately. But you cannot paint each state with a broad, national brush. There are some anomalies of the positive kind here and there, and Texas is one of them.
As we all know, the US economy is in slowdown mode and while we are debating the depth of the slowdown, the following are contributing factors are slowing the national economic train down:
- High Oil Prices - A “parabolic” spike in the price has occurred, and some even say that a bubble has been created. Naturally this leads to uncertainty, and what might be called the “uncertainty premium.” Political instability and weather are driving prices higher. Inflationary pressures and the weak dollar are not helping matters. Oil needs to break downward to give the dollar a reason to rally.
- Weak Housing Prices - Housing prices are down from coast to coast. We have seen a 14% drop in the first quarter of 2008.
- Credit Crisis Concerns - We are seeing a 16-year low in consumer confidence. As a result of this and other factors, banks are focusing on serving existing clients to conserve capital, as opposed to reaching out to new clients.
Nationally, the conclusion we can all come to is that we are in a protracted mess that will linger on for 12 to 18 months as we work our way out of the problems.
Doing Business in Texas - What’s Next?
Now that you’ve had the doom and gloom, let’s talk about the bright spots here in Texas. In many areas of business and economy, Texas has outperformed the nation as a whole. Let’s take a closer look:
- Growing Output - Texas is the top exporter in the country, with exports rising over 40% in the last three years. Location helps, as do the good ports and airports in Texas. This state also enjoys a good product mix and is not as oil-dependent as in the past.
- Statewide Economic Development - Texas Legislators got busy in 2001 with House Bill 931. There are also more Fortune 500 companies headquartered in Texas than any other state.
- Energy Prices – They are not so bad when you own a lease or two in the Barnett Shale. We are watching for the next Rolls Royce dealership in Midland, Texas.
- Real Estate & Construction - We did not overbuild as we did in the 1980s. Inventories are relatively “in-check” and builders learned their lesson from last time. We gain about 400,000 people per year, so we can absorb the current inventory. House prices in Dallas actually rose in the first quarter of 2008, which was an anomaly on the national scale.
- Job Growth – Texas is number one in the nation for job growth, as of February 2008. Of the Top 15 MSAs in the country, Texas had four of them.
- We Can Say YES - The workers are here in Texas. We have an educated workforce with companies that are willing to train. Thanks largely to the Hispanic population, Texas has a high birth rate. Low regulations – we can build houses on a lot of open spaces. We enjoy low taxes in many regards and have no personal income tax.
- Nationally - Our economy will take off again, as it always has in the past. It’s just going to take some time. As for technology, we ain’t seen nothing yet! Think of all our advancements — nanotechnology, the mapping of the human genome — and then think of all the things your Grandparents saw. The pace of change and improvement is just getting faster.
Globalization will continue. Outsourcing will not stop and it will continue to raise everyone’s standard of living, despite all of the current screaming from some political corners. Texas will be in the center of it all, right now Texas is a great place to be, no matter who wins the White House.





